The world's thirst for energy will grow rapidly in the decades to come and the demand for oil will soon exceed production capacity. The era of cheap oil is thus at an end and energy intensive economies like the USA and Europe will need to adapt or decline. Market forces would eventually lead to the needed changes, but they are reactive and waiting for these forces to have their effect would be economically very painful. For this reason, i believe the USA should launch a vast proactive energy program to reduce its oil consumption massively over the next 10 years. The US currently produces about 40% of the oil it consumes on a daily basis and imports another 20% from its important economic partners and reliable allies to the north and south, namely Canada and Mexico. Reaching a target of 40% reduction in consumption within the next 10 years would make North America energy independent and secure.
The benefits
In addition to the obvious national security and economic security benefits that would come from the success of such a program, there would be many more positive impacts. The huge amount of money currently being spent overseas to buy oil, something in the order of 700 billion dollars a year, would be spent mostly within the US instead, reducing greatly the massive trade deficit of the country while creating much needed economic activity at home and numerous new jobs that cannot be outsourced abroad by definition. This would consequently have a direct positive impact on the value of the battered US currency. Additionally, the benefits to the environment and people's health due to the reduction in harmful emissions and noise pollution would help contain health care costs. But i think the satisfaction derived by the American people from knowing they are no longer buying oil from countries that wish them harm would possibly be one of the most important psychological effects of all!
Some solutions
Pluggable hybrids Hybrid cars are already a reality but do not yet occupy a large part of the market. Pluggable hybrids will be a much more interesting solution because they gather the advantages of electric cars and the range of conventional cars in one product. Scheduled to hit the market very soon, they'll offer the best widely available way to drive without oil in the immediate future. If Detroit is smart, producing quickly this new generation of vehicles could be the salvation of the american automobile industry. All efforts should be made to ensure pluggable hybrids with a battery autonomy of at least 60 miles (100 km) become widely available within the next 5 years, and conceivably, a law could be passed to force car companies to offer every vehicle they put on the market in the USA in pluggable hybrid version at comparable price within the next 10 to 15 years. Such vehicles will have an enormous impact on the amount of oil used by personal cars. For most people, a 60 miles autonomy will mean they can do their daily commute entirely on battery power, plugging their car at night to be ready for the next day. With time, more efficient batteries will be developed and autonomy will get much better until the gas engine becomes unnecessary, but until then, these pluggable cars will be much more efficient than current vehicles and constitute an economically viable transition solution. They'll be lighter, since the weight of the batteries will be more than offset by the elimination of the transmission, differential, power steering and yes, even the brakes! They should be easier and less expensive to maintain as well (less wear and tear of moving parts, fewer fluids to change). The electric motors will perform the functions of the removed parts more efficiently, especially braking since the energy usually wasted and dissipated as heat will get returned to the batteries instead. If all the energy used by such vehicles was produced by coal powered plants, the amount of CO2 released in the atmosphere would still be reduced by their higher efficiency compared to conventional cars, but of course the goal should be to produce the additional electrical power that will be required to replace oil with less polluting technologies. The good thing in the short run is that there is excess capacity in the electrical grid as we speak, since peak usage happens during the day and production is reduced at night. For utility companies, being able to sell more power at night to recharge cars will make their existing production capacity more profitable and the prospect of rising future demand will be a powerful incentive to increase production capacity. Obviously, more players will also want to enter that market and should be encouraged to do so. I can imagine cities building their own wind farms and selling power using modified parkometers, allowing people to buy charging and parking time at once; money collected this way would help finance production projects. Surplus production could be used to power public transportation and buildings. I can anticipate shopping centers turning their rooftops into solar generation stations, allowing them to offer free recharging to their customers. They are always looking for ways to keep people inside as long as possible, what better way than by having their customers' cars slowly recharging for free in the parking lot! I can envision energy intensive industries being encouraged with tax incentives to develop their own renewable production capacity to offset part or all of their use and offer free recharging to their workers. Some Hybrids will no doubt come equipped with solar panels to enhance their range and provide a limited onboard recharging capacity. As for the energy need not met by all these recharging options, it will be filled by the auxiliary engine. This engine should not be limited to running on regular gasoline but be capable of using a variety of fuels such as ethanol, propane, natural gas and even hydrogen. Competing energy sources will mean lower price as well as more availability security.
Geothermal energy for homes
Using, to heat homes, a non renewable resource that releases billions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every year and must be bought largely from foreign countries, makes absolutely no sense at all, especially when there are excellent alternatives. Geothermal heating systems probably are one of the best existing alternatives around. These systems use a simple heat pump, similar to an air conditioning system but reversible, with the particularity of extracting or injecting heat in the ground instead of in the air. They take advantage of the fact that the temperature inside the ground at a certain depth remains constant throughout the year even in northern regions, thus they can heat houses extremely efficiently, requiring about half the energy used by other systems while offering an interesting bonus: they'll act as A/C keeping people cool during the summer time. These systems' high efficiency will save a good deal of money to home owners using them compared to oil, natural gas or even conventional electric systems. I believe the US should launch a vast program to replace all oil heating systems in the country with such geothermal systems within 10 years. It could be financed jointly by the Federal government and municipalities. We just witnessed the failure of the 150 billion dollars rebate checks scheme, the so called "stimulus package", because the money went either to pay down some debt, was saved, or for the part that was spent as intended, went towards consumer's goods that are now mostly made in China. A 150 billion dollars federal fund designed to encourage cities to launch their own local conversion programs by matching the money spent dollar for dollar (for a total of up to 300 billions), would go a long way towards the elimination of oil heating systems. To encourage people who can pay for part of the conversion, these programs could cover 80% of the total cost for the first and second year, 90% for the third and fourth, and 100% for the remaining years until all homes have been converted. This way, those who can pay would be converted first and start benefiting from lower heating costs and quiet central A/C sooner. As for cities, they could finance their part by emitting bonds to be repaid via a small permanent increase in property tax for the converted homes, maybe delayed by one year to maximize the economic stimulus effect in the short run. This tax increase would be more than offset for home owners by the resulting savings on energy. Such a program would have a very positive economic impact for the USA very quickly since the conversion work would all be done in the United States, creating a lot of jobs locally, and the systems installed should also be made in the USA, creating more jobs and eventually a capacity to export. The money injected in the economy this way, coupled with the psychological impact of seeing all this work happening in neighbourhoods all over, would be a big help for the economy, but there's more. Home owners would spend less money on heating, making more available for other things, including mortgage payments, a good help for those who are struggling. Furthermore, because home heating oil is basically the same thing as diesel fuel used for transportation and in agriculture, the price of this fuel would be reduced by less demand, helping to keep the price of everything else including food lower, a good way to keep inflation in check. More jobs will also be created in the utility industry to build the energy capacity required to respond to the increase in electrical demand, and i'd expect at least some part of it to come from renewable sources such as wind or solar power. As for the nation as a whole, this would reduce both oil imports and the trade deficit, having a very favorable effect on both currency value and future prosperity.
Trains instead of trucks
It's a well known fact that trains are much more fuel efficient than trucks can ever hope to be. A train can transport hundreds of thousands of tons of freight with little manpower, minimal impact on the railway itself, and much less diesel fuel. All efforts should be made by the US to maximize the amount of freight transported city to city by rail. The US rail transportation system must be expanded and wherever new rails have to be laid they should be electrified to be ready to accept electric trains. The rest of the current network will have to be retrofitted gradually towards the goal of eliminating diesel use completely. Efficient truck accessible terminals will need to be built in all major cities. Trailers usually pulled by trucks should ride on railroad cars instead, and the longer the distance the more sense this makes. Trucks won't disappear anytime soon, but transportation between major population centers should be done by trains, while trucks continue to take care of local distribution. Several side benefits would include a much longer lifespan for American highways, especially the roads that are submitted to frost and thaw where heavy traffic causes severe damage. Less trucks on the road also makes them safer, saving lives and money.
Urban transportation networks
Public transportation in all major cities should be made free or nearly free. This could be financed by a local tax on gas applied to the zone of service, a toll for cars to enter the commercial center of cities, higher for single occupant, less for several occupants, and perhaps even waved for pluggable hybrids. On the national level, a tax on corporate (and personal) jet fuel could be collected and distributed to cities, a nice way to offset their high carbon footprint.
Ban gas driven lawn care equipment
With the wide availability of electric, and more recently, rechargeable battery driven lawnmowers and other yard care equipment, why are we still using gas to mow our lawns? Sales of new gas lawnmowers should be banned, leading to a gradual phase out of these anachronic high polluting dinosaurs.
Telecommuting
All levels of government should do an inventory of the tasks that are performed by public sector employees to determine which can be done remotely and organize a way to have those tasks performed from home instead. The same should be encouraged in the private sector, especially for office employees, as long as the temptation to outsource this work overseas is avoided. Any number of cars removed from the road this way is a net gain on many levels.
4 days work week
It may not be to everyone's liking, but a 4x10 hours work week would be a great way to reduce commuting and gridlocks. Depending on the work environment, some companies could make this option open to some employees without imposing it on all.
Electrical rental cars available on demand
This would allow people who want to use public transportation but don't want to loose the advantages of owning a car, to keep those advantages at low cost. Using a special debit card that they could insert into any rental car available at any charging station, users would simply unplug it and use it, then leave it at any other charging station indicated by the built-in GPS. Usage time would be debited automatically and the card credits could be replenished easily at any bank or automatic banking machine. Taxi drivers won't like me because this could quickly become a cheap and practical alternative to taxi cabs, but hey, can't stop progress!
Agricultural Machinery powered by electricity
At first glance this might sound far fetched, but bear with me. Utility companies will soon be looking for good locations to put wind farms, and agricultural land would be perfect. The companies could offer a small rental fee for the land plus free power for the machinery. At the base of each turbine, a charging station would keep one or several industrial size batteries charged so they can be used to replace exhausted batteries and loaded onto the machinery to continue working. Anyone who ever drove an electric forklift knows what i'm talking about. Placed at strategic locations along the fields, these batteries would provide all the necessary power to do any needed work. Electric motors are very strong and have a lot of torque, they can do the job. In fact, by removing the need to propagate the power output of a single diesel engine to all the tasks performed at once by modern agricultural machinery, you remove the need for a lot of chains, straps, drive shafts or power take-offs that can break, and replace all these vulnerable moving parts by a different electric motor for each task. This should make the machines more rugged and much easier to maintain as well as far less dangerous. Less breakage in the machinery should more than makeup for the time wasted replacing batteries, and the benefit of much quieter machines would certainly please many farmers. But of course, collecting a small rent for the wind turbines, and above all, saving tons of money on fuel will sell them the idea right quick! For the rest of us, this would mean food at a steadier, likely lower price, unaffected by the ups and downs of the oil market.
The Airline Industry
In the short run, there aren't many ways to make aircrafts friendly to the environment. Other than more fuel efficient engines, only one comes to mind: biofuels. But in the long run, plane travel over continental landmasses will be replaced by something far better and way faster. For decades, air travel has been limited to the same speed which is slightly less than the speed of sound. With the exception of the technological marvel but commercial disaster that was the Concorde, no passenger plane can fly faster than the speed of sound, not because it's impossible, but because of the destructive shock waves that result and hit the ground. Europe already has high speed trains that can compete with air travel, but Europe is much more compact than the USA. With longer distances, even high speed trains can't compete, at least not yet. Germany and Japan are already experimenting with a new generation of trains called Maglev and one is in use in Shanghai China. The US is unfortunately far behind and needs to get with the program soon. Maglev type trains are likely to be the favored way to travel over land in the future, at speeds as high as will be comfortable for the passengers. Such trains, pressurized and running inside vacuum tubes, won't be limited by the speed of sound and will probably accelerate for half the trip and decelerate for the other half, reaching incredible speeds. Best of all, they work with electricity (basically a train mounted on a linear electric motor) so they won't pollute.
Switching from oil to electricity to power much of everyday life will no doubt be good for the environment, but electricity can't be pumped out of the ground. To meet the heightened demand, production will need to increase fairly quickly. Wind power generation will likely shoulder the bulk of renewable energy production in the near term, except perhaps in the south-western part of the country surrounding the Mojave desert where solar power plants should see the light of day. American companies like GE, Westinghouse and others better get ready to supply the turbines and equipment needed. Wind farms, compared to coal plants and nuclear plants, have the advantage of coming online quickly and gradually without the need to wait for all the turbines to be erected for production to begin, but even an intense effort in that sector cannot possibly meet all the new demand. Conservation efforts, many of which have no impact on people's comfort like simply replacing conventional light bulbs with compact fluorescent lights, can help moderate the increase in demand. Individual renewable power generation systems should also gain in popularity and efficiency, while their cost diminishes. Research and development as well as marketing help for this interesting power generating solution should be encouraged. But still, more power will be needed, so i believe the US will have to build 10 to 15 new nuclear power plants over the next decade and should begin the work soon because these babies take a long time to come online. More coal generating plants will probably be needed as well, but as long as they use CO2 sequestration technology, they can be built without too many worries for the environment. I'm not a great fan of this sequestration idea because i fear it may eventually leak and come back to bite us, but in the short run it's better than millions of cars spewing CO2 all over the place everyday. Hydroelectric power could also be used, but i'm not sure there are very many places where new dams could be built in the US, and even if there were, all kinds of people would certainly create all kinds of difficulties building them, therefore it's unlikely to be a major source of new renewable energy.
Meeting the increased electrical demand
The goal of this article was to demonstrate that there are actual solutions to oil addiction and that these solutions don't amount to a reduction in standard of living but rather amount to a better one, with less pollution, less noise and more jobs. The future clearly belongs to new energy technologies, that much is certain!
Lightspeed.