The Democratic Party's race is over and Barack Obama is now officially his Party's candidate to the presidency of the United States in November 2008. The nomination process wasn't without flaws, as Hillary Clinton received more votes (or at least a virtual tie), and if the process had been the same as it was in the past, i.e. winner takes all (where winning a state means winning all of its delegates), Hillary Clinton would have won. Furthermore, if one adds up the Electoral College votes of the states won by Obama and Clinton, she comes out on top that way too. But that's the American electoral system for you, one of the most screwed up among the world's democracies. Yet, since Hillary conceded the race, it is clear now that Obama is the legitimate winner for his Party.
The last 8 years under the presidency of George W. Bush have been a veritable catastrophe for the US of A. The famous (or infamous) Bush tax cuts, which were massively tilted towards the more affluent segment of the American population, are responsible for the biggest and fastest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind. Supposedly intended to allow Corporate America to invest and create jobs to better the American economy, the money went massively to China instead, where factories sprung up at a furious pace. All this money leaving the US pushed the mighty American dollar down. Then, when these factories output came online and started flooding the American market, the corresponding plants in the USA started closing one after the other: 3 to 4 million good paying American jobs were lost that way. At the same time, 3 to 4 million people were pushed out of the middle class and into poverty. Coincidence? I think not! Of course, all the manufactured goods now bought from overseas mean lots of $US leaving the country, pushing the greenback further down, and this is now a structural economic problem that will keep deepening the American trade deficit with China and reducing the value of the $US. Then came the mortgage crisis. Is it surprising to see people who lost their good paying job and are now working at 60% their former wage level having trouble making their mortgage payments? This problem was also compounded by the greed and predatory lending practices of some lenders and by the fast rising cost of health care and of course, oil. Who knew that transferring all this wealth to China would make them buy cars, increasing the worldwide demand for oil and pushing the price up at the very time the dollar is falling? And then, there is the rising price of food, pushed up by the increased energy cost of production and delivery. Not to be forgotten is Bush's latest offering: the "open sky" policy. At a time when the American airline industry is struggling more than ever before because of high oil prices, this policy now opens this industry to foreign ownership. Well, don't be surprised if all the airlines in the USA become foreign owned within 10 years!!! Yes, George Bush truly ran the United States the same way he ran everything else he ever touched... right into the ground! Corporate America however made a killing... of the American middle class that is! There was some economic growth, at least when calculated in $US, but it mostly lined up the pockets of the very well to do, while middle class wages declined by an average $1000 a year per household. Yet, when the massive loss of value of the greenback (about one third in 8 years) is taken into account, there was no real economic growth at all,
or very little. In November 2008, the American people will have to decide if they want more of this, whether they are better off today than they were 8 years ago.
The Candidates
For the Democratic Party, Senator Barack Obama There are a number of things i like about Obama, but also many things i don't. He does bring new blood and new ideas to the political scene, so his slogan "Change you can believe in" makes a lot of sense. Of course, the important thing people must ask themselves is whether it's change they can live with. I like that he wants to rebalance the Bush tax cuts so more of the money goes to middle class and lower class Americans. I like that he wants to make health care more affordable, although not universal. I like that he intends to put forward a plan to reduce America's need for foreign oil. That is an absolute must and it can be achieved. In fact it's urgent, and the success of such a plan may very well be the most important thing to preserve and even enhance the future standard of living of Americans. I intend to write an article on that subject in the near future.
I don't like that he attended for 20 years a church where anti-american rhetoric was often heard (from Jeremiah Wright), and only recently had the good judgment to leave it. I don't like that his wife and him have shown a lot less enthusiasm for their country than one would expect from someone wanting to occupy its highest office. I don't like that Obama threatens to gut NASA's budget, a very important engine for research and development as well as for the standing of the USA among the nations of the world. I don't like that he wants, early in his first term, to sit down and negotiate with Abominajad of Iran (not a typo!) and other bad characters like Chavez and others; these talks aren't likely to produce anything worthy nor change any minds, but they'd bring a severe waste of prestige to Obama's eventual presidency if they failed miserably as they are likely to. Worst of all, i don't like his plan to pull out all American troops from Iraq within 16 months of being sworn in, no matter what happens as a result. Why don't i like that plan? Precisely because of what might happen as a result! If civil war flares up in Iraq because of such a precipitous pull out, the consequences could and very likely would be very dire indeed! Think of a civil war between Shiites on one side, strongly backed by Iran, and the Sunnis on the other, backed by Saudi Arabia and much of the rest of the muslim world. Such a war has all the potential of destabilizing the most important oil producing region on the planet, and if you think the price of oil is high now, wait until each side begins to attack the oil producing capabilities and trade routes of the other. Oil prices would basically explode, bringing down the world's economy and making food unaffordable to so many that food riots and even wars would likely result all around the globe. Worst case scenario some might say? Unfortunately all too easily predictable to be ignored i'd say.
So all in all, the things i don't like about Obama, especially his plan for Iraq, outweigh the things i like. I think putting Obama in charge of the US is kin to putting a 16 year old who just got his driver's license behind the wheel of a large bus full of people. Basically, his blatant lack of experience makes me nervous, and i wouldn't want to be on that bus! Thankfully, as a Canadian i won't be, and i won't be voting in November either. I just hope that bus doesn't hit us!
For the Republican Party, Senator John McCain
There are a number of things i like about McCain, but also many things i don't. He does bring a lot of experience, integrity and an impressive record of service to his country. There can be no doubt about his love and devotion to the USA. The problem is that he is running as a repugnican (also not a typo!), and as such, if he expects to win, he has to try to rally the base. This means he is now embracing the catastrophic Bush tax cuts he previously rejected. Another thing i don't like about McCain is his plan to close Guantanamo. I can understand that he has very personal reasons to want it closed after having been badly mistreated for 5 years himself as a prisoner of war, but closing Guantanamo is likely to bring very dangerous unintended consequences. Spreading these terrorists, the worst killers on earth, among the carceral population of several detention centers may very well turn these prisons into homegrown terrorist generating factories, something way too dangerous to even contemplate for the security of the nation. He also talked, although only once and very briefly to my knowledge, of further reducing America's nuclear deterrence. At a time when America never had so many enemies and so few friends, this is a very bad idea!!! In my opinion, America's nuclear deterrence is already dangerously weak, especially the submarine component because codes from the president are required to launch, codes that may never come if America suffered a massive attack from all sides at once. Such an attack is far from unthinkable, with Russia (North) now apparently back on a Cold War footing, China (West) rapidly increasing its defense budget and building up its army faster than any other nation, Iran (East) pursuing relentlessly the acquisition of nuclear weapons and menacing Israel with annihilation pretty much every week, and Venezuela (South) where Chavez's paranoia and close relationship with Iran could soon create a new nuclear enemy in South America.
The best way to make such an attack unthinkable is for America's nuclear deterrence to remain strong.
However, when it comes to the security of the United States, i do like John McCain. I trust this man to do everything he can to keep America safe. I like that he intends to make sure America doesn't leave Iraq as a failed state and a potentially extremely dangerous powder keg that could inflame the whole region or even worse. I also like that he intends to control unnecessary spending and veto bills loaded with pork. The American government needs to get its massive deficit under control as quickly as it can, and this will help. But making the Bush tax cuts permanent certainly won't, neither will this help the American economy and fast weakening dollar since it's actually the cause of the problem, absolutely not the solution.
So all in all, the things i don't like about McCain, especially his plan to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, outweigh the things i like. To tell you the truth, i'm very happy to be Canadian right about now, it means i don't have to decide between these two. I'm not saying America is screwed either way (well, ok, maybe i am), but your great nation has surprised the world before and your economy is incredibly resilient and dynamic because it is based on the free thinking of a free people that has the constitutional right to pursue its own economic betterment. If only the American people could get a little help from their leaders instead of them seemingly doing everything they can to evaporate the American middle class every chance they get...
Like much of the world, i'll be following the rest of this campaign with interest, hoping the best man will win and help America back on a course of economic success and political respect among the nations of the earth. To all of us, good luck!
Lightspeed.